Valuations
Highlights A currency portfolio comprised of the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the Norwegian krone is likely to outperform a more diversified basket over multiple macroeconomic scenarios. Our work suggests that valuation matters for currencies over the…
In lieu of the next weekly report I will be presenting the quarterly webcast ‘What Are The Most Attractive Investments In Europe?’ on Monday 17 February at 10.00AM EST, 3.00PM GMT, 4.00PM CET, 11.00PM HKT. As usual, the webcast will take a TED talk format…
Highlights Chart 1The 2003 SARS Roadmap
The 2003 SARS Roadmap…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy China’s monetary easing, the resilient US dollar, weak operating industry metrics and a looming margin squeeze all signal that an underweight stance is still warranted in the S&P chemicals index. Lofty…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy There are high odds that China’s real GDP deceleration will continue for the next decade, casting a shadow over the profit prospects of the S&P 1500 metals & mining index. A structural below benchmark allocation is…
Highlights Commercial rents have fallen in real terms, revealing that the commercial property price rally has been fueled exclusively by low rates. Limited upside for rents and an upward direction for future rates are two significant headwinds. However,…
Highlights An analysis on India is available on page 12. There is extreme complacency in global financial markets. With currency markets’ implied volatility at a record low, we recommend going long EM currency volatility. The latter will rise in the…
Highlights The bank credit 6-month impulse is likely to drop sharply in Europe, drop modestly in the US, but remain positive in China. Hence, the momentum of first-half economic data is likely to be worse in Europe than in China – albeit the Wuhan…
Highlights Global Corporates: The cyclical backdrop – accommodative monetary policies, improving global growth momentum, moderate inflation and subdued volatility – is supportive for the continued outperformance of global corporate bonds over sovereign…
Highlights Macro winds are slowly changing, compelling investors to take a second look at highly cyclical sectors such as industrials. In this Special Report we highlight that the S&P industrials index is trading at a nearly 10% discount to the market…