Turkey has a path toward sustained disinflation. But that will require tight macro policies for an extended period. The question is, will the authorities tolerate the consequent growth slowdown, even a recession, and surging…
We dig into the USD-denominated Emerging Market Sovereign Index to see which credit tiers and countries offer value relative to US Credit.
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, investors should stay cautious with respect to all Turkish assets. Over the past year, the Turkish Central Bank raised the policy rate significantly, from 8.…
Turkey’s macro policy stance can hardly be called orthodox. And yet, corporate profit margins will contract meaningfully this year. The lira can also fall massively even if inflation eases from the extremely high levels – just as it…
While 2024 will see various election risks, global geopolitical uncertainty is driven by the US election and its struggle with Russia, China, and Iran. The stock market can manage local domestic political risk. But it will correct…
Assuming yesterday’s policy rate hike is a sign that Turkey is finally veering towards orthodox economic policies; should investors rush in?
The Turkish lira hit a fresh record low on news that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan secured another five-year term following Sunday’s run-off election. Notably, despite an economic crisis (including headline CPI inflation…
President Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party emerged as the winner of the Turkish general election which was concluded yesterday. This victory means that their expansive policies of the past decade will continue, and…
Results of Turkey’s presidential election show incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan securing 49.5% of the votes in Sunday’s contest – ahead of his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s 44.9%. Although Erdogan…
The Turkish presidential election will go to a runoff in two weeks, but President Erdogan outperformed his opinion polls. His party, the incumbent AKP, won a majority in parliament. This outcome rewards Turkey’s inflationary policies…