Special Report

We anticipate decisive tariff measures early in Trump’s second term. In this Special Report, we explore how the costs of higher tariffs might be distributed among foreign suppliers, U.S. importers, and consumers.

Special Report

There is no better way to gauge the macro policies of the new US administration than being privy to President Donald Trump’s discussions with the new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. While we do not have inside information, we have…

President Trump is only the second president to have won, lost, and won again in US history, so today’s inaugural address was unlike any other since Grover Cleveland in 1893. 

Special Report

Inauguration Day or shortly thereafter will see either a global tariff of 10% or targeted but substantial tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada. Treasury yields will rise on tax cuts, the dollar will stay strong, yet oil will also…

Special Report

In this Special Report, BCA’s Chief Geopolitical/US Political Strategist Matt Gertken discusses the top five “Black Swan” risks for 2025, from Trump to China.

Every year we highlight five low-odds scenarios that would have a major impact on global financial markets if they happened. This year we contemplate a total reversal of Chinese policy, a US-Iran nuclear deal, a breakdown of NATO, US…

In our Alpha report, we reiterate that we expect President Trump to curb his most enthusiastic plans for tax cuts due to the pressure from the bond market. That will be good for equities in the long run – as it will assuage the…

Trump's policies aim to support domestic producers and will be pro-growth and inflationary, at least initially. This environment is supportive of equities. Earnings will likely be strong, but elevated valuations make equities prone…

Congress will pass tax cuts by end of 2025 producing a fiscal thrust of about 0.9% of GDP in 2026. Trump will count on that stimulus as a basis for slapping tariffs on leading trade partners.China will retaliate against Trump…