Special Report

It may take several months for the tariff shock and policy uncertainty to filter through the real economy, but survey-based data are already sending a warning. Equities have priced in a lot of good news, and investors are too…

Negotiations on trade, Iran, and Ukraine will prove critical this month. Markets will remain volatile because positive data surprises enable the White House to press its hawkish tariff hikes, while negative surprises force the White…

In our Alpha report, we explain how to trade the trade war and then conduct a scenario analysis for global asset allocation. The short version is that a policy induced recession has to be traded based on policy, not hard…

Special Report

The US and Canada will resolve their trade dispute quickly, leading to a North American deal and better prospects for future relations, as well as for other US trade deals around the world. But even as tariff threats decline, the US…

Special Report

Do not play the bounce in US and global cyclical assets as Trump backpedals from the trade war. China will talk, but the pace will be slow and the outcome disappointing. Fiscal stimulus will surprise marginally in the EU, China, and…

Special Report

This report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who visited our office to discuss the rapidly evolving economic outlook. The US and global economies are likely to enter a recession…

Last week, we hosted two webcasts for our clients globally to discuss the effects of tariffs on US equity sectors, preview the Q1 earnings season, and map out the trajectory of S&P 500 price performance. We also asked the webcast…

The policy-induced decline in consumer confidence has spread to businesses and investors, increasing the probability of a recession even if the administration reverses field on its aggressive tariff measures. We reiterate our…

Special Report

Upgrade the odds of a full-scale war in the Taiwan Strait from 5% to 10%. Rapid escalation of US-China economic war raises the probability of tensions spilling into the military-strategic domain. Investors should buy insurance…

Fed Chair Jay Powell’s remarks yesterday were in-line with our base case expectation that the Fed will not cut rates proactively in the face of rising tariff-driven inflation.