Trade / BOP
The United States and China continue to see relations worsen, particularly over China's activities in the South China Sea. But that is not the only reason geopolitical risk is migrating from the Middle East into Asia Pacific - a trend that investors cannot afford to ignore.
We do not expect Russia and OPEC members to reach a production-limiting agreement at the April 17 meeting in Doha, but that does not diminish our bullish expectations for a rebalancing of oil markets in H2 2016.
There are a number of warning signs that the global and EM equity bounce is unsustainable. The latest episode of housing recovery in China will prove temporary due to still-large imbalances. Overweight Indian stocks: the credit cycle in India is less vulnerable compared to other EMs. However, the outlook for Indian equities in absolute terms is not bullish.
Most of the economic arguments in favor of the U.K. leaving the EU do not carry much weight, as we discuss in this collaboration between BCA's <i>Geopolitical Strategy</i> and <i>European Investment Strategy</i>. However, the probability is a coin toss - much higher than investors tend to think. We review the geopolitical and investment implications of the "Leave" and "Remain" scenarios.
Expectations of a deepening EM/China growth slump and RMB depreciation have been the key to the selloff in global risk assets. There is no basis for these expectations to improve. Therefore, there are few fundamental reasons for EM and global risk assets to rally much further. Stay put. In Brazil, the impeachment rally is unsustainable and will reverse sooner than later. Stay short Brazilian risk assets.
Sterling has come under intense pressure since PM Cameron announced date of the EU referendum. Our bearish view on the British pound has not been based on a forecast of U.K. succession from the EU.
China's capital outflows since last year can be broadly grouped into three categories: reduced foreign inflows (and accelerated outflows), domestic firms deleveraging dollar debts, and domestic entities increasing dollar assets. Barring an extreme scenario, the PBoC should have more than enough ammunition to defend the RMB, should it opt to.
While cyclical factors have contributed to the recent trade slowdown, there are many longer-term structural forces that will pose headwinds to globalization. A lack of aggregate demand will constrain growth and hurt trade in a global economy attempting to increase savings. Meanwhile, the bulk of economic dividends from free trade have already been reaped. The direct casualties from slowing global trade are economies with large export sectors: most commodity-producing countries and some south-east Asian nations.
Taiwan's opposition Democratic Progressive Party is poised to win the presidency and possibly the legislature in elections January 16. The result will be icier cross-strait relations in the coming years that will add a geopolitical headwind to Taiwanese assets, even as it struggles to cope with a low-growth world. Taiwan still has advantages over other emerging markets, but its outlook is darkening.
