Trade / BOP
Dear Client, In lieu of our regular report next week, we are sending you a Special Report from my colleague Chester Ntonifor, Foreign Exchange Strategist. Chester will share his outlook on the Hong Kong Dollar. I hope you will find his report insightful.…
Dear clients, This week we are sending you a Research Note on balance of payments across the G10, authored by my colleague Kelly Zhong. With unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus, balance-of-payment dynamics will become an even more important driver…
China: The Recovery And Equity Dichotomy China’s economic recovery has been gathering steam, and policymakers have become reasonably confident about the growth outlook. In fact, transaction activity in the property market has recovered to year-ago levels,…
Highlights A buildup in industrial inventory may temporarily slow down China’s commodity imports over the next month or two. Last week’s Politburo meeting stated that policy supports will remain in place for 2H20, despite a rising policy rate. We think…
Highlights The tech sector faces mounting domestic political and geopolitical risks. We fully expected stimulus hiccups but believe they will give way to large new fiscal support, given that COVID-19 is weighing on consumer confidence. Europe’s relative…
Dear Client, Next Monday, July 20, we will be hosting our quarterly webcast, one at 10am EST for our US and EMEA clients and one at 9pm for our Asia Pacific, Australia and New Zealand clients; our regular weekly publication will resume on Monday July 27,…
Dear Client, In lieu of our regular report next week, I will present our view on China’s economic recovery, geopolitical risks, and implications on financial markets in two live webcasts. The webcasts will take place next Wednesday, July 15 at 10:00AM EDT (…
Highlights Should the DXY fail to breach below 92 in the coming months, momentum will be a risk to our short dollar positions. Another risk is valuation. The trade-weighted dollar is expensive, but not overly so. It is not especially expensive versus the…
Highlights In the short run, extreme policy uncertainty is problematic for risk assets. In the long run, gargantuan fiscal and monetary stimulus continues to support cyclical trades. Equity volatility always increases in the lead-up to US…
Highlights Our recalibrated model suggests that, if President Trump places a 25% tariff on all Chinese goods exports to the US, then the RMB should fall by 4% against the dollar from its current value. The RMB has been trending below its “fair value” in…