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Highlights In the first nine months of 2020, China's capital outflows, measured by the Balance of Payments (BoP) data, have been the largest since 2016. Unlike 2016, the outflows are mainly driven by a strategic accumulation of…
Special Report Highlights The US saves too much to achieve full employment but not enough to close the current account deficit. According to the “Swan diagram,” a weaker dollar would move the US economy closer to “external”…
  Chart Of The WeekInvestor Consensus Is Bearish On Dollar  Today we are releasing another issue from our series Charts That Matter. Going forward, this publication will become a regular monthly deliverable to our clients.…
Special Report Highlights Latin America faces a deep economic contraction and a new surge of social unrest and political unrest. However, the risks are increasingly priced into financial markets – especially if global monetary and fiscal…
Kenya: An Incomplete Adjustment The Kenyan shilling will depreciate by 15-20% in the next 12 months. The downward pressure on the currency stems from the country’s sizeable current account deficit. In addition, Kenya needs lower…
Highlights EM domestic fundamentals, global trade and commodities prices, as well as global financial market themes are the main drivers of EM financial assets and currencies. The positive effect of improving global growth and rising…
Special Report Highlights President Trump is making a comeback in our quantitative election model. An upgrade from our 35% odds of a Trump win is on the horizon, pending a fiscal relief bill.  The Fed’s pursuit of “maximum…
Highlights US-China relations in 2020 consist of a gentleman’s agreement to keep the Phase One trade deal in place and aggressive maneuvering in every other policy area. Stimulus is unlikely to be curtailed in the US or China…
Highlights The stock market can apparently ignore the intensifying US-China conflict as long as massive monetary and fiscal stimulus continues. Hence the ongoing “stimulus hiccup” is a big problem. Ultimately a stimulus…
Dear Client, In lieu of our regular report next week, we are sending you a Special Report from my colleague Chester Ntonifor, Foreign Exchange Strategist. Chester will share his outlook on the Hong Kong Dollar. I hope you will find his…