In this Insight, we revisit our long AUD trades, after the upgrade from our attractiveness ranking last week.
We are pushing back the anticipated start date for a Eurozone recession and assessing how it affects our equity stance.
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy and The Bank Credit Analyst services, trade policy under a second Trump presidency represents the greatest cyclical risk to investors. In 2018, the Trump administration…
In this insight, we provide an update on the Norwegian krone, with attractive trade ideas over a long-term horizon. Shorter-term, our neutral-to-positive view on the dollar keeps us on the sidelines for USD/NOK.
Despite the economy being on the verge of a recession, the South African Reserve Bank will not ease policy meaningfully. Doing so will accentuate the currency depreciation, which, in turn, will push up bond yields – an outcome the…
On the surface, the latest Taiwanese export orders release delivered a positive signal on the global trade cycle. The 1.9% y/y expansion in January marks a significant improvement from the 16.0% contraction in December. Moreover…
Japanese exports in JPY increased by 11.9% y/y in January, up from a 9.7% y/y increase in December and surpassing expectations of 9.5% y/y. A 29.2% y/y jump in exports to China led the overall surge. Trade data from Asian…
Over the next six months, the deterioration in non-US growth will occur earlier and be more pronounced than in the US. This expectation reinforces our confidence to bet on the strength of the US dollar. As usual, the flip side of the…
Over the past few months we have been highlighting that there are some budding signs of a recovery in global manufacturing activity. Most notably, the new orders-to-inventories ratio of Sweden’s manufacturing PMI has been…