Trade / BOP

European profits margins are elevated. Will a mild recession be enough to bring them down?

In this insight, we calibrate our investment views based on the latest Bank of Canada decision.

In this Insight, we discuss our rationale for a short sterling position.

Does the recent surprise rate cut by the Swiss National Bank augur other dovish surprises among major central banks in Europe?

Despite a couple of rate cuts in H2 2024, borrowing costs will remain elevated in real terms amid lower inflation in the US and Europe. This and tightening fiscal policy will hinder domestic demand in advanced economies. Domestic demand in China and EM ex-China will remain very tepid, with risks skewed to the downside.

In this joint Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Investment Strategy Special Report, we assess economic activity in Sweden, a highly cyclical and trade-oriented economy, and its implications for the global growth outlook.

Turkey’s macro policy stance can hardly be called orthodox. And yet, corporate profit margins will contract meaningfully this year. The lira can also fall massively even if inflation eases from the extremely high levels – just as it did in the 1990s.