Highlights The near-term RMB outlook is entirely dictated by the movement of the dollar. We expect the CNY/USD to weaken alongside broad dollar strength, which could rekindle financial market volatility and cap the upside in Chinese…

Special Report

Hillary Clinton has a 65% chance of winning the election; she receives 334 electoral college votes according to our model. Trump still requires an exogenous shock to win. Meanwhile, the USD is poised to rally - and leftward-moving…

As the U.S. median voter is shifting to the left, redistributive policy could come into play. A strong dollar helps to achieve this goal as it results in a bigger share of labor income in the economy. EM and commodity currencies…

All three of Trump's signature policy proposals - increased deficit-financed infrastructure spending, a more restrictive immigration policy, and trade protectionism - are dollar bullish. These policies could cause the U.S. economy to…

The Fed is accentuating bearish dynamics for the dollar over the next three to six months. The upcoming National Congress of the Communist Party of China provides Chinese authorities with an incentive to ramp up stimulus this year.…

Rising demand for U.S. dollars in EM and further yen depreciation, if it transpires, assures global exchange rate volatility will rise. Rising currency volatility, especially in the RMB, will push the global risk premium higher,…