Highlights Just to be clear: The balance of price risks in oil markets remains to the upside - particularly if we see a supply shock resulting from the loss of as much as 2mm b/d of exports from Iran and Venezuela. Neither the supply side…

Special Report

There is growing evidence that Trump and the U.S.A. are winning not only the war of words, but also the actual trade war, even though it is still early days. Chart 1 clearly depicts that the S&P 500 is having a stellar year compared…

Dear Client, We had intended to send you the second part of our two-part special report on long-term inflation risks this week, but given the sharp moves in the dollar and emerging market assets, we decided to write this bulletin instead…

Special Report

Dear Client, This week we are sending you a Special Report written by Mark McClellan, Chief Strategist, The Bank Credit Analyst, Marko Papic, Chief Strategist, Geopolitical Strategy and our very own Chris Bowes, Associate Editor, U.S.…

Highlights If the U.S. Treasury intervenes to push the greenback lower, it would only have a temporary impact. Ultimately, interventions work if they are matched with easy monetary policy. However, U.S. monetary policy will only be…

Special Report

Highlights Xi Jinping is trying to do two things at once: ease policy while cracking down on systemic financial risk; The trade war with the U.S. is a genuine crisis for China and is eliciting fiscal stimulus; Credit growth is far…

Highlights The 2018 dollar rally is principally the consequence of the slowdown in global industrial activity and global trade, itself a reverberation of China's efforts to de-lever and reform its economy. For China, reforms and…

Special Report

According to market lore, one should never say, "It's Different This Time". But every time is always different: there is a never a previous period that perfectly matches the current environment. That is why forecasting is so…

Highlights Paradox 1: U.S. growth will slow, and this will force the Fed to raise rates MORE quickly. Paradox 2: China will try to stimulate its economy, and this will HURT commodities and other risk assets. Paradox 3: Global…

Special Report

Dear Client, This week I am sending you a Special Report written by Mark McClellan, Chief Strategist of the monthly Bank Credit Analyst. Mark deals with the implications of the U.S./Sino trade war for U.S. equity sectors. He identifies…