Technical

Highlights Why is the gap between the stock market and the economy so wide?: It is well established that stocks can diverge considerably from fundamentals in the near term, but lately it is as if the stock tables and the front-page headlines are from entirely different newspapers. It may be…

Highlights Please note that we published a Special Report early this week titled Brazilian Banks: Falling Angels, and an analysis on India. Please also note that we are publishing an analysis on Indonesia below. Given uncertainty over the depth and duration of the unfolding global recession,…

Feature An analysis on Singapore is available below. The plunge in global risk assets is occurring at such a breathtaking pace that any economic analysis is pointless at this time. Economic growth forecasts have been reduced to moving targets. In our latest report published two days ago, we…

Highlights Duration: It is too soon to call the bottom in bond yields. To help make that call we will be looking for when: daily new COVID-19 infections reach zero, global growth indicators improve, US economic indicators worsen, technical indicators signal a reversal. Fed: Low inflation…

Highlights Building on a previous special report focused on the investable market, in this report we construct and present models designed to predict the odds of Chinese domestic equity sector outperformance. BCA Research's China Investment Strategy service will aim to use our newly developed…

Please note that analysis on India is published below. Highlights This report reviews several financial market-based indicators and price signals from various corners of global markets that are pertinent to the global business cycle, and hence to EM risk assets. The overwhelming message from…

Highlights Since AQR rebranded its flagship “Risk Parity” mutual fund late last year, many clients have asked about risk parity and its potential impact on financial markets if interest rates rise. The key to a “risk-based” approach is “risk diversification” and the use of leverage. Like any…

Highlights Portfolio rebalancing is the process of realigning portfolio weights back to their strategic allocations. Frequent rebalancing is essentially a counter-cyclical, or value, strategy. In effect, investors buy low and sell high. Infrequent rebalancing is a momentum-factor investing…

Highlights Investors are currently too pessimistic on Europe’s growth prospects. In fact, European growth will soon bottom. European growth and inflation are also set to improve relative to the U.S. This should give investors an opportunity to reassess the long-term outlook for European…