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  South Africa’s revised budget forecasts reveal that authorities are more optimistic than they were last October. The government deficit was revised down, and public debt is now expected to peak at 88.9% of GDP in 2025/26,…
Special Report Highlights Volatility subsided but we still think geopolitical risk is underrated in the near term. The new Biden administration faces critical tests on China/Taiwan and Iran. The Biden-Xi phone call did not resolve anything. We…
Kenya: An Incomplete Adjustment The Kenyan shilling will depreciate by 15-20% in the next 12 months. The downward pressure on the currency stems from the country’s sizeable current account deficit. In addition, Kenya needs lower…
Feature Analysis on Korea & South Africa are available on pages 6 and 10, respectively. Mexico: Balancing Pros And Cons We have been overweight Mexican sovereign credit and local currency bonds as well as equities relative to the…
Special Report Highlights Our COVID Unrest Index reveals that Turkey, the Philippines, Brazil, and South Africa are the major emerging markets most at risk of significant social unrest. China, Russia, Thailand, and Malaysia are the least at risk…
Highlights Supply constraints and unstoppable demand growth – the result of stricter regulations requiring higher loadings in autocatalysts to treat toxic pollution in automobile-engine emissions – will continue to push…
Highlights Analyses on Indonesia and South Africa are available below. The slowdown in Chinese domestic demand has been the main culprit behind the global trade contraction - not the U.S.-China trade confrontation. China’s…
Highlights Analysis on South Africa is published below. The “EM” label does not guarantee a secular bull market. None of the individual EM bourses has outperformed DM on a consistent basis over the past 40 years. EM…
Special Report Highlights A sovereign debt default in Argentina is unlikely in the next 12 months, the primary reason being IMF financing. The peso and the stock market appear close to two standard deviations cheap. Consequently, it makes sense to…
This week we are publishing Part 1 of an overview of the cyclical profiles of emerging market (EM) economies. This all-in-charts presentation illustrates the business cycle conditions of the largest EMs. The aim of this report is to…