Weak spots in the U.S. economy have become increasingly hard to find. That said, two standouts are non-residential construction and light vehicle production, both of which remain in contraction despite the overall economic expansion (…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Upgrade packaged food stocks to overweight. Enough value creation has occurred to create an attractive entry point in this consumer goods sub-index. Our tactical overweight in the S&P utilities…
Highlights Global manufacturing inventories are low but this does not guarantee higher share prices for global cyclical stocks. If an increase in inventories is accompanied by strengthening final demand, it will be very bullish for the…
Highlights China's supply-side structural reforms will focus mainly on its coal and steel markets this year. In addition, environmental policies will become stricter in 2017, as Beijing puts more weight on environmental protection…
Highlights Dear Client, This issue of BCA's Commodity & Energy Strategy features our 2017 Outlook for Bulks and Base Metals. The evolution of China's economy will, as always, be critical to these markets, given that country…
Highlights The U.S. accounts for 18% of Chinese exports, while China accounts for only 8% of American overseas sales, which puts China at a disadvantage in a full-blown trade war. However, China has become an increasingly important…
Steel share prices celebrated the introduction of punitive import tariffs earlier this year, but that impact may already be wearing off. The latest data show that U.S. steel imports, while still well below the 2015 peak, have hooked…
The excitement surrounding steel stocks earlier this year on the back of the liquidity-driven bounce in commodity prices, whiffs of stabilization in Chinese economic growth and new steel import duties is diminishing. We used the rally…
China's reflation policies have succeeded in reviving iron ore and steel prices, which are up 45.6% and 52.6% from their January lows, along with the profitability of domestic steelmakers.