Highlights Chinese credit origination surpassed expectations in March. Credit growth is now clearly trending higher, and the latest data suggest that economic activity is rebounding. This bodes well for global growth. The conventional…
Feature For a decade, mainstream economics has prescribed remedies for sluggish growth in the euro area on the basis of three articles of blind faith. First, that the ailment arises from structural impediments to growth; second, that in…
Highlights It may seem self-evident that most governments are overly indebted, but both theory and evidence suggest otherwise. Higher debt today does not require higher taxes tomorrow if the growth rate of the economy exceeds the…
Highlights We would fade fears of an “earnings recession.” EPS growth should increase during the remainder of this year. While high debt burdens around the world may exacerbate deflationary pressures by restraining spending…
Estimates of Venezuelan external debt exposure place it around a staggering US$150-$200 billion. Sovereign and PDVSA bonds due next year are estimated to be about US$9 billion. This does not even account for payments due on other…
The long-term fiscal outlook is certainly bleak, but the near-term risks are low. President Trump's tweets aside, the U.S. has an independent central bank that has been able to keep inflation expectations well anchored.…