Executive Summary German GeoRisk Indicator Russia and Germany have begun cutting off each other’s energy in a major escalation of strategic tensions. The odds of Finland and Sweden joining NATO have shot up. A halt…
Executive Summary Semi Shipments-To-Inventory Ratios Are Falling In Korea And Taiwan Global semiconductor stock prices are vulnerable to the downside over the next three to six months. The global semiconductor industry…
Executive Summary Macron Still Favored, But Le Pen Cannot Be Ruled Out Macron is still favored to win the French election but Le Pen’s odds are 45%. Le Pen would halt France’s neoliberal structural reforms,…
Highlights In the short term, the US stock market price will track the 30-year T-bond price, with every 10 bps move in the yield moving the stock market and bond price by 2.5 percent. We think that the bond market will not allow the…
Taiwanese export orders decelerated sharply in October which suggests that global demand for manufactured goods is softening. Aggregate orders rose 14.6% y/y following a 25.7% y/y increase in September, and fell below…
Highlights Remain neutral on the US dollar. A breakout of the dollar would cause a shift in strategy. Russia’s conflict with the West is heating up now that Germany has delayed the certification of the Nord Stream II pipeline.…
Highlights China’s slowdown will deepen, and US bond yields will likely rise. This augurs well for the US dollar but will produce a toxic cocktail for EM. The recent weakness in the commodity complex will continue. EM markets…
Korean CPI inflation surged in October. The headline figure accelerated to 3.2% y/y from 2.5% – the fastest annual pace of increase since January 2012. Similarly, the core measure jumped to 2.8% y/y from 1.9%. These…
As expected, the Bank of Korea kept policy unchanged at its Tuesday meeting, maintaining the 7-Day Repo Rate at 0.75% following August’s 25 basis point hike. However, Governor Lee Ju-yeol signaled that a rate hike is likely in…
Highlights The US Climate Prediction Center gives ~ 70% odds another La Niña will form in the August – October interval and will continue through winter 2021-22. This will be a second-year La Niña if it forms, and…