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Executive Summary China: GeoRisk Indicator China: GeoRisk Indicator…

Executive Summary German GeoRisk Indicator German GeoRisk Indicator…

Executive Summary Semi Shipments-To-Inventory Ratios Are Falling In Korea And Taiwan Semi Shipments-To-Inventory Ratios Are Falling In Korea And Taiwan…

Executive Summary Macron Still Favored, But Le Pen Cannot Be Ruled Out Le Pen And Other Hurdles (GeoRisk Update…

Highlights In the short term, the US stock market price will track the 30-year T-bond price, with every 10 bps move in the yield moving the stock market and bond price by 2.5 percent. We think that the bond market will not allow the stock market to suffer a peak-to-trough decline of more than…

Highlights Remain neutral on the US dollar. A breakout of the dollar would cause a shift in strategy. Russia’s conflict with the West is heating up now that Germany has delayed the certification of the Nord Stream II pipeline. As long as the focus remains on the pipeline, the crisis will…

Highlights China’s slowdown will deepen, and US bond yields will likely rise. This augurs well for the US dollar but will produce a toxic cocktail for EM. The recent weakness in the commodity complex will continue. EM markets are at risk in absolute terms and will continue to underperform…