Highlights Tensions are still high between the U.S. and China; China's neighbors are in the line of fire; Korea and Taiwan stand to suffer; We are bullish Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines; We are bearish Indonesia and…
Highlights Multipolarity will peak in 2017 - geopolitical risks are spiking; Globalization is giving way to zero-sum mercantilism; U.S.-China relations are the chief risk to global stability; Turkey is the most likely state to get…
Highlights Sweden Yield Curve: The drivers behind our Sweden 5-year/10-year curve flattener trade - a Riksbank stance that appeared too dovish, a cautious global risk landscape and the strength of Sweden's economic expansion - have…
Highlights Dear Client, The growth of the electric-vehicle market, particularly re its implications for hydrocarbons as the primary transportation fuel in the world, will remain a key issue for energy markets, particularly oil. The…
The fiscal spending impulse in China is still positive but receding. The nation's productivity and potential GDP growth are bound to decline due to a rising role of government in capital and resource allocation. Hence, cyclical…
A number of divergences have emerged in global financial markets. These gaps are unsustainable. The recent improvement in Asian trade/manufacturing has been largely due to firming demand for electronics/semiconductors. Meanwhile,…
Risks to global growth remain to the downside. Selling pressure in cyclical markets and assets will escalate. EM currencies will make new lows versus the U.S. dollar, the euro and yen. Take profits on our long JPY/short KRW and long…
The near-term (next month or two) market dynamics in EM risk assets remain a coin toss. Beyond that the outlook for EM risk assets remains downbeat. EM financial markets are complacent and there are many potential negative EM/China…