Highlights There are a number of market signals and indicators that are denoting opening cracks in the reflation trade in general and EM risk assets in particular. EM/China narrow money (M1) growth points to relapse in their growth…
Highlights The U.S. dollar will continue to appreciate while the RMB will depreciate further. This is a bad omen for EM risk assets, commodities, and global late cyclical equity sectors. Gold often leads oil and copper prices.…
Highlights Chile's economy is headed for recession. Facing strong external and domestic headwinds, any policy stimulus will be too late to prevent the impending contraction in economic activity. Investors should receive 3-year…
The U.S. dollar's corrective/consolidation phase is over, and it is about to rally. The risk-reward for EM stocks and currencies is extremely unattractive. We are reiterating our recommendation to short a basket of ZAR, BRL, TRY, MYR…
The median voter moving to the left has spurred paradigm shifts. These new regimes are giving way to transformational leaders who seek change by breaking convention. As they test their constraints and pursue their preferences, a…
While the BoE and the Fed are increasingly committed to letting inflation expectations rise, the BoJ disappointed once again. The dollar and the pound are likely to experience broad weaknesses, while gold, the euro and commodity…