South Africa’s revised budget forecasts reveal that authorities are more optimistic than they were last October. The government deficit was revised down, and public debt is now expected to peak at 88.9% of GDP in 2025/26,…
In October, South African authorities announced plans to engage in fiscal tightening over the next three years to stabilize the mushrooming public debt-to-GDP ratio. The announcement has boosted investor confidence. Since then, the rand…
South Africa’s public debt is bound to surge to unsustainable levels: from 62% of GDP in 2019 to 95% of GDP by the end of 2021. If the government is forced to take over unsustainable debt from state-owned enterprises, which is very…
Feature Analysis on Korea & South Africa are available on pages 6 and 10, respectively. Mexico: Balancing Pros And Cons We have been overweight Mexican sovereign credit and local currency bonds as well as equities relative to the…
Highlights Supply constraints and unstoppable demand growth – the result of stricter regulations requiring higher loadings in autocatalysts to treat toxic pollution in automobile-engine emissions – will continue to push…
The backdrop for South African financial assets remains poor, despite the recent surge in precious metals prices and Federal Reserve easing. The rand will continue to depreciate, even if precious metals prices continue to rise. Such a…
Highlights Analyses on Indonesia and South Africa are available below. The slowdown in Chinese domestic demand has been the main culprit behind the global trade contraction - not the U.S.-China trade confrontation. China’s…
South Africa’s public debt dynamics are on an unsustainable track. Two prerequisites for public debt sustainability are (1) for interest rates to be below nominal GDP growth or (2) continuous robust primary fiscal surpluses. Hence,…
Highlights Analysis on South Africa is published below. The “EM” label does not guarantee a secular bull market. None of the individual EM bourses has outperformed DM on a consistent basis over the past 40 years. EM…