South Africa
Executive Summary China: GeoRisk Indicator
China: GeoRisk Indicator…
Executive Summary South African financial markets in general, and the exchange rate in particular, have benefited from a number of tailwinds over the last two years. These are now reversing. The central bank’s new monetary operation framework is intended to force commercial banks to increase…
Is The Rand Selloff Over?…
Executive Summary German GeoRisk Indicator
German GeoRisk Indicator…
Executive Summary Several indicators point to overly bullish equity market sentiment. That is why, we are reluctant to chase South African share prices higher both in absolute terms and relative to the EM benchmark. Tight macro policies – fiscal austerity and high borrowing costs – will keep…
South Africa: Buy Or Sell The Rip…
Fade The Rand’s Strength?…
Highlights The ruling African National Congress will be difficult to displace in upcoming elections given the large economic role it plays in the public sector and in low-income households. Low growth outcomes will continue as the government navigates allocating state funds more efficiently,…
South Africa: Unintended Consequences Of Currency Appreciation…
Highlights The central bank’s efforts to sterilize inflows of US dollars from the IMF have inadvertently led to considerably tighter monetary conditions. Fiscal tightening, large currency appreciation and high lending rates will have negative ramifications for nominal GDP growth and, thereby,…