The normalization of oil storage markets in the Northern Hemisphere; strong demand, aided by China stimulus this year; and continued production discipline supports our view Brent prices likely have bottomed, and will move higher from…
Following this weekend’s OPEC 2.0 meeting, KSA announced a 1mm b/d crude output cut, slated for this July or August, as it attempts to support weak oil prices. The new output quotas, reduced to reflect members’ weak crude oil…
The Gulf’s political economy – particularly that of KSA – drives the supply side of oil-price discovery. This has been evolving since 2017, when OPEC 2.0 was formed. It is now fundamental to the market. We expect Brent to average $95…
China’s victory in getting KSA and Iran to restore diplomatic relations is of far greater consequence to commodity markets than the past weeks’ bank failures in the US. For China, further success in sorting long-standing security…
China’s re-opening – powered by the fiscal and monetary stimulus required to achieve at least 5% real GDP growth after flattish 2022 growth – and a weaker USD will catalyze demand growth this year and next, lifting global oil…
Prefer government bonds over stocks, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and large caps over small caps. Favor North America over other markets. Favor emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America over Greater China, Turkey,…
Unlike in the past, Saudi Arabia is currently pursuing a counter-cyclical policy. This is the right policy and could lead to a re-rating of this bourse in the long run. In the short term however, rising interest rates, tight fiscal…