Executive Summary Nuclear Worries Take Center Stage Vladimir Putin has now committed himself to orchestrating a regime change in Kyiv. Anything less would be seen as a defeat for him. Assuming he succeeds, and it is far…
Executive Summary Russia Not Prepared To Invade West Ukraine Yet Russia is escalating its aggressiveness in Ukraine, marked by the shelling of a nuclear power station, troop reinforcements, and rhetorical threats of nuclear…
Russia's oil and gas exports last year accounted for almost 40% of the government's budget. According to Russia's central bank, crude and product revenue last year amounted to just under $180 billion, while pipeline…
Executive Summary We look at the Ukraine crisis in the broader context of shocks, what we can learn from them, and how we can incorporate them into our strategy for investment, and life in general. Our high-conviction view is that the…
Executive Summary Russian Stocks Are Breaking Below Their 2008 And 2015 Lows The Kremlin will not halt its military operations in Ukraine for now. The strategic objective of Putin is to bring Ukraine back into its…
Will the West lift sanctions right after the war in Ukraine ends? We doubt it. In our view, Russia is embracing a long period of economic and financial isolation. Odds are high that Russian financial markets will remain…
Executive Summary Hopes of an imminent peace deal between Russia and Ukraine will be dashed. The conflict will worsen over the coming days. As was the case during the original Cold War, both sides will eventually forge an…
Have sanctions been sufficient to persuade the Kremlin to stop its military operations in Ukraine? While sanctions have started and will continue hurting the Russian economy and financial system, the Kremlin will not halt its…
Although Central European countries are not at risk from Russia’s military attack, their financial markets will remain jittery for a while. Central European financial markets, namely Poland, Hungary, and Czech Republic,…