Hillary Clinton has a 65% chance of winning the election; she receives 334 electoral college votes according to our model. Trump still requires an exogenous shock to win. Meanwhile, the USD is poised to rally - and leftward-moving…

The median voter moving to the left has spurred paradigm shifts. These new regimes are giving way to transformational leaders who seek change by breaking convention. As they test their constraints and pursue their preferences, a…

Special Report

Highlights Just ahead of the attempted coup d'état in Turkey, the international press was largely complementary of the political situation in the country. For example, a Bloomberg headline read "Once Spurned, Turkey…

In recent travel, our clients remain focused on downside risks to today's range-bound markets. And for good reason. Uncertainty regarding Chinese reaction function is the biggest source of political risk in today's markets. We…

Global trade is plummeting as commodity prices remain depressed and emerging markets unravel. Even if oil were not plumbing new lows, we would remain bearish on EM economies, where poor governance and low efficiency suggest that more…