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Recession-Hard/Soft Landing

Another Blockbuster Employment Report…
Colombia: Macroeconomic Fundamentals, Public Finances, And Political Uncertainty Warrant Underweight…

Climbing US bond yields, alongside higher oil prices, might spoil the party for global risk assets. There are budding cracks in EM domestic bonds, and even though we like this asset class in the long run, investors exposed to it should reduce their positions for now.

ISM Shows Signs Of A Manufacturing Revival…
Getting The US Consumer Right…
Is The Labor Market Stabilizing…

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2024.

Strong PCE Report Increases Risk Of Second Wave…

We are not yet ready to downgrade equities on a tactical basis but continue to expect we will eventually do so. We present a checklist of indicators that we are watching to determine when to de-risk.

MacroQuant downgraded equities from overweight to neutral on a 1-to-3 month horizon. The model maintains a neg­ative view on stocks over a 12-month horizon.