Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
Consumer Income And Spending Consistent With Broad Cooling…
Services Inflation Still Too High For October ECB Cut…
Downtrend In Savings Rate Gets Revised Away…
We consider the possibility that lower interest rates could lead to an increase in household borrowing, prolonging the economic recovery.
Markets are rallying on Fed rate cuts and China stimulus but there will also be October surprises ahead of the US election, which Trump could still win. Russia’s conflict with the West is escalating and the Middle East is destabilizing further. Investors should favor US bonds but they should add some risk in emerging markets in response to China’s policy turn.
Is This The Big Bang Stimulus Markets Have Been Waiting For…
SNB Eases In September, Signals December Cut…
Lower Mortgage Rates Spur Refinancing Surge…
Riksbank Eases Further, Signals Jumbo Cut…
Recession Or Not, Spreads Have Little Room To Tighten…