Highlights This week we elaborate on the issues that we believe will be critical to investors going into 2017: Feature 1. Is China beginning to export inflation? Not yet. As long as the RMB depreciates faster than the rate of domestic…

Highlights Despite the static headline GDP figures, most of our indicators suggest Chinese growth momentum has improved since the second quarter, particularly in the industrial sector. A dollar overshoot, domestic housing policy…

Special Report

Highlights A central bank cannot control/target the quantity and price of money simultaneously. For the past few years, China's central bank has silently moved away from controlling money growth toward targeting interest rates.…

Highlights Chile's economy is headed for recession. Facing strong external and domestic headwinds, any policy stimulus will be too late to prevent the impending contraction in economic activity. Investors should receive 3-year…

Special Report

This month's Special Report looks at the Fed's policy options in the event that there is a negative economic shock while the policy rate is still very depressed. The Fed's "Plan A" is more QE and forward guidance, which are not up to…

The neutral real rate of interest, r*, is likely to remain depressed for the foreseeable future. The Fed is likely to take additional incremental measures to boost long-term inflation expectations, including allowing inflation to…

The Brexit vote will either usher in the complete dissolution of the euro area, or it will prove to be a blessing in disguise. Our bet is the latter, but the next few months are still likely to see heightened political uncertainty…

The disappointing May payroll report does not foreshadow an imminent economic downturn. The Japanese government's decision to postpone next year's VAT increase and introduce fresh fiscal stimulus should help jumpstart growth. On the…

Special Report

Colombia's structural growth outlook is superior to many other developing economies. In the near-term, however, Colombia's economy is set to weaken materially. Upgrade Colombian equities and sovereign credit to neutral versus EM…

Special Report

This week U.S. Equity Strategy is sending you the latest BCA Special Report, where Mark McClellan and Anastasios Avgeriou tackle the questions of "Global Earnings Recession: How Deep? How Long?"