Highlights The rollover in the economic surprise index is not sending a near-term recession signal and should trough in the next month or so, as decent economic data begins to surpass now lowered expectations. Investors should be…

Highlights The FOMC statement reaffirmed that the Fed remains in hiking mode. If the Fed keeps raising rates in line with the "dots," monetary policy will move into restrictive territory by early 2019. By then, the…

Highlights The latest reading from all the indicators confirms that the growth improvement in the manufacturing sector since early last year has moderated, while the sharp recovery in producer prices has stalled. However, it is…

Highlights Will Trump's trade rhetoric damage the U.S. service sector's abilities to generate a trade surplus and create high-paying jobs? Our assessment of the latest Beige Book via the BCA Beige Book Monitor supports the Fed…

Special Report

Highlights Venezuela's economic implosion accelerated with the oil price crash. The petrodollar collapse is suffocating consumption as well as oilfield investment, creating a "death spiral" of falling production. The…

Highlights Economic Outlook: The global economy is in a reflationary window that will stay open until mid-2018. Growth will then slow, culminating in a recession in 2019. While the recession is likely to be mild, the policy response…

Special Report

The current U.S. economic expansion is the weakest of the post-WWII period but it will end up being one of the longest. The silver lining of moderate growth has been the absence of the typical imbalances and pressure points that…

Highlights U.S. growth will remain firm over the next 12 months, but then will begin to slow from its above-trend pace as the economy runs out of spare capacity. Fiscal stimulus, by the time it is enacted, may simply end up pushing up…

Special Report

Highlights Argentina's structural reform story keeps getting better and the bull market in the nation's assets has further to go. Further interest rate cuts means a cyclical economic recovery is in the making. The South…

Highlights The U.S. dollar will likely overshoot. This is negative for EM. China by and large has a choice between two potential roadmaps: (1) short-term pain / long-term gain and (2) growth stagnation with mini-cycles around it.…