Highlights The investors we met last week were ready to hear some good news: The constructive story we told across three days of client meetings is more sanguine than the consensus view, but clients were open to considering it. Global…

Highlights The manufacturing slowdown, on its own, is unlikely to tip the economy into a recession. The sector accounts for a small share of U.S. output and employment, and will gain a tailwind from a pick-up in global growth. A…

Analysis on Turkey is available below. Highlights A dovish Fed or robust U.S. growth does not constitute sufficient conditions for a bull market in EM. China’s business and credit cycles are much more important factors for EM…

Highlights We still don’t see a recession occurring in the next twelve months, … : Recessions only occur when monetary policy is restrictive. It’s easy now, and it will be a while before conditions push the Fed to…

Highlights European and global growth will rebound in the fourth quarter but the rebound will lack longevity. Bonds: Expect bond yields to edge modestly higher, especially for those yields that are deeply in negative territory.…

Highlights The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong but investors’ skittishness has caused stocks to fluctuate with the ebb and flow of news headlines. With investor sentiment playing a leading role, we introduce a…

Highlights   Portfolio Strategy Firming relative profit prospects, rising likelihood of an oil price spike and higher geopolitical risk premia, bombed out valuations and extremely oversold technicals all signal that an…

Dear Client, BCA’s New York conference takes place next week on September 26-27, and I look forward to meeting some of you there. Because of the conference, our next report will come out on October 3. Dhaval Joshi Highlights…

Highlights Chart 1Waiting For A Manufacturing Rebound  The 2015/16 roadmap is holding. As in that period, the ISM Manufacturing PMI has fallen into recessionary territory, but the Services PMI remains strong (Chart 1). As is…

Highlights Currency markets continue to fight a tug-of-war between deteriorating global growth and easing global financial conditions. Such an environment is typically fertile ground for a dollar bull market, yet the trade-weighted…