Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The Fed’s QE and ZIRP, the collapse in gasoline prices and extremely depressed breadth readings that are contrarily positive, all signal that it no longer pays to be bearish consumer discretionary stocks. A boost in demand…
Highlights Global growth should bounce back in the third quarter, as mass COVID-19 testing allows more people to return to work. Temporary layoffs have accounted for the vast majority of the increase in unemployment so far. Ample fiscal and monetary…
Highlights Please note that we are publishing an analysis on Vietnam below. The unprecedented depth of this recession entails that many businesses will likely be operating below their break-evens for a while, even after the confinement measures are eased…
Highlights The potential range of book value outcomes for large banks is enormous, … : Total credit losses will be a function of the virus’ persistence, the intensity and duration of the social distancing actions taken to combat it, and the efficacy of…
Making predictions about the economic and market outlook seems a futile exercise in the midst of such massive uncertainty. The deluge of articles about COVID-19 merely serves to highlight that nobody really knows how things will play out in the year ahead.…
Dear Client, This week’s report is written by BCA’s chief economist, Martin Barnes. Martin explores the myriad ways the pandemic could influence long-term economic and financial trends. I trust you will find his report very insightful. Best regards,…
Highlights Please note that we published a Special Report early this week titled Brazilian Banks: Falling Angels, and an analysis on India. Please also note that we are publishing an analysis on Indonesia below. Given uncertainty over the depth and…
Highlights Recommended Allocation
Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: Playing The Optionality…
S&P 500 futures (ES) have fallen over 36% from peak to trough. This is similar to the median fall during recession bear markets dating back to the Great Depression. Most importantly, comparing the two most recent iterations is instructive in attempting…
Highlights Investment Grade: Investors should overweight investment grade corporate bonds relative to a duration-matched position in Treasury securities, with a particular focus on bonds that are eligible for the Fed’s purchase programs. High-Yield:…