Special Report

Highlights The potential range of book value outcomes for large banks is enormous, … : Total credit losses will be a function of the virus’ persistence, the intensity and duration of the social distancing actions taken to…

Special Report

Making predictions about the economic and market outlook seems a futile exercise in the midst of such massive uncertainty. The deluge of articles about COVID-19 merely serves to highlight that nobody really knows how things will play out…

Special Report

Dear Client, This week’s report is written by BCA’s chief economist, Martin Barnes. Martin explores the myriad ways the pandemic could influence long-term economic and financial trends. I trust you will find his report very…

Highlights Please note that we published a Special Report early this week titled Brazilian Banks: Falling Angels, and an analysis on India. Please also note that we are publishing an analysis on Indonesia below. Given uncertainty…

Highlights Recommended Allocation  The outlook for markets over the next few months is highly uncertain. On the optimistic side, new COVID-19 cases are probably close to peaking (for now), and so equities could continue to…

S&P 500 futures (ES) have fallen over 36% from peak to trough. This is similar to the median fall during recession bear markets dating back to the Great Depression. Most importantly, comparing the two most recent iterations is…

Special Report

Highlights Investment Grade: Investors should overweight investment grade corporate bonds relative to a duration-matched position in Treasury securities, with a particular focus on bonds that are eligible for the Fed’s purchase…

Special Report

Highlights Wells Fargo’s path, before and after deregulation, has been similar to every other SIFI bank’s: It began by serving a single area in a single state, expanded within the state, and then pieced together its…

Dear Client, I will be discussing the economic and financial implications of the pandemic with my colleague Caroline Miller this Friday, March 27 at 8:00 AM EDT (12:00 PM GMT, 1:00 PM CET, 8:00 PM HKT). I hope you will be able to join…

Highlights The pandemic has a negative impact on households and has not peaked in the US. But a depression is likely to be averted. Our market-based geopolitical risk indicators point toward a period of rising political turbulence…