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Policy

The S&P500 During Fed Rate Cuts
The S&P500 During Fed Rate Cuts …
Daily Insights
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Timing The Transition From Soft Landing To Recession

Our thoughts on bond positioning following this morning’s employment data.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Saudi Arabia: Economic Slowdown To Persist

The Saudi economy is facing internal and external headwinds. The geopolitical conflict is also escalating in the Middle East. EM equity portfolios should stay neutral on Saudi stocks. EM sovereign credit portfolios should upgrade Saudi Arabia from neutral to overweight.

Emerging Markets Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik, Matt Gertken
BoE Needs More Evidence Inflation's Heading To Target
As expected, the Bank of England voted to keep its bank rate unchanged at 5.25% on Thursday – maintaining policy on hold for the fourth consecutive meeting. Two of the nine MPC members voted in favor of a 25bps rise (one less than in December) while one…
Daily Insights
Near-Identical Rate Cuts In The G7 Is A Mispricing
Given the huge disparities in wage inflation between the US, euro area and UK, it is remarkable that the markets are pricing near-identical rate cuts from the Fed, ECB, and BoE of around 150 bps through 2024. Assuming central banks don’t behave recklessly –…
Daily Insights
US Industrial Policy: 1940 Redux
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, the US Department of Defense’s (DoD) first-ever industrial policy – dubbed the National Defense Industrial Strategy (NDIS) – is attempting to reverse post-Cold War decline in the DoD’s…
Daily Insights
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For The Fed, The Waiting Is The Hardest Part

In this Insight, we share our thoughts on yesterday’s FOMC meeting and the Fed’s likely next moves, with implications for US bond strategy.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, US Bond Strategy
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Monthly Portfolio Update: Waiting For The Recession

When will the US also buckle under high rates? We expect a US recession to begin around mid-year. Stay defensive.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Powell Pushes Back Against March Rate Cut
As expected, the Fed decided to keep policy unchanged at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The changes to the Fed Statement generally indicate that the central bank is preparing to move towards easing monetary policy. Specifically, the…
Daily Insights
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The UK And Japan Are At Wage Inflation Extremes. Why?

We describe and explain the wide disparity of wage inflation across G7 economies, and discuss what it means for the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ policy moves in the coming year. Plus: we highlight two investments ripe for reversal, and two investments ripe for rebound.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi

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