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Policy

The Bank of Japan delivered a historic policy adjustment this week, ending both negative interest rates and Yield Curve Control. In this Insight, BCA’s global fixed income and currency strategists discuss the immediate implications of the move for Japanese bond yields and the yen, and the potential for additional tightening actions.

Canada’s CPI release for February shows price pressures continue to ebb with the various measures of inflation all falling below consensus estimates. In particular, headline inflation decelerated from 2.9% y/y to 2.8% y/y – its lowest since March 2021 and…
The Bank of Japan pulled its policy rate out of negative territory with a 10-basis point rate hike on Tuesday that brings the BoJ’s overnight interest rate to a range of 0% to 0.1%, ending over a decade of ultra-accommodate monetary policy. The central bank…
Various indicators of Eurozone wage growth have cooled off in recent months. Notably, the labor costs index eased sharply from a downwardly revised 5.2% y/y to 3.4% y/y in 2023Q4  – the slowest pace of increase since Q3 2022. Alternative measures such as…
The Aussie dollar was among the worst performing G10 currencies on Tuesday on the back of a shift in tone in the Reserve Bank of Australia’s post-meeting statement. Specifically, the RBA replaced the hawkish bias that “a further increase in interest rates…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, investors should stay cautious with respect to all Turkish assets. Over the past year, the Turkish Central Bank raised the policy rate significantly, from 8.5% to 45%. Banks’ lending rate has…

GAI technology has made tremendous gains over the past year. It has advanced from being a mere “curiosity” to becoming an everyday helper. While the promise of GAI is enormous, its effects are still limited: Companies are still struggling with monetization while productivity improvement is still at least a year away. In terms of evolution, the focus is shifting away from “picks and shovels” infrastructure companies toward model and application developers.

Turkey’s macro policy stance can hardly be called orthodox. And yet, corporate profit margins will contract meaningfully this year. The lira can also fall massively even if inflation eases from the extremely high levels – just as it did in the 1990s.

Chinese economic data for the first two months of the year were mixed. On the one hand, industrial production and fixed asset investment growth came in above consensus estimates, accelerating to 7.0% y/y (vs. expectations of 5.2% y/y) and 4.2% y/y (vs.…
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, the impact of the global savings glut is among the four structural trends that will drive EM debt going forward. As an asset traditionally further out on the risk curve, EMD is sensitive to…