Turkey’s macro policy stance can hardly be called orthodox. And yet, corporate profit margins will contract meaningfully this year. The lira can also fall massively even if inflation eases from the extremely high levels – just as it…
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, the impact of the global savings glut is among the four structural trends that will drive EM debt going forward. As an asset traditionally further out on the…
Chinese economic data for the first two months of the year were mixed. On the one hand, industrial production and fixed asset investment growth came in above consensus estimates, accelerating to 7.0% y/y (vs. expectations of 5.2…
Improved consumer morale will not compensate for the fading tailwinds to consumption. Neither will the wealth effects from higher stocks and home prices.
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, Australia’s macroeconomic environment validates a long AUD position, especially at the crosses. The market expects that the RBA will cut interest rates…
In this Insight, we revisit our long AUD trades, after the upgrade from our attractiveness ranking last week.
BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service ranks the major economies by their economic and financial performance under various categories. In the inflation category, the surprising top award goes to Italy, a country which…
Gold has had a stunning rally over the past few weeks, gaining 9.2% since February 14 and reaching consecutive all-time highs last week before paring back some of its gains. Indeed, the drivers of gold have moved in a bullish…
The US retail sales report for February delivered a disappointing signal on Thursday. Although retail sales returned to expansion, the 0.6% m/m increase fell below anticipations of a 0.8% m/m rise. In addition, the prior month…