This report looks at the likely path for the dollar and bond yields over the next 6-to-12 months.
Claudia Sheinbaum officially became Mexico's new president amid significant market pessimism. Our Emerging Market strategists highlighted that investor fears about Mexico’s constitutional changes were largely…
The bond market priced out a lot of recession risk after this morning’s employment report, and the 10-year Treasury yield has moved back into the Soft Landing Zone. We assess the data and consider whether we need to change our…
Comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Thursday, hinting at “a more aggressive” pace of rate cuts, marked a shift in rhetoric from previous meetings which signaled a “gradual” pace. The…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the consensus expectation of a soft landing is wishful thinking. Many investors have pointed to the mid-1990s as an example of when Fed easing paved…
The prospects of Fed rate cuts powered the S&P 500 Real Estate index’s rally. Real estate was the best-performing sector in Q3, outperforming the S&P 500 by nearly 12%. Can this sector pursue its lead now that…
TIPS outperformed duration-equivalent nominal Treasuries by 86 bps so far in 2024 and our US bond strategists downgraded their allocation from neutral to underweight this week. The 10-year TIPS breakeven inflation rate remains…
The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI improved from 49.5 to 50.4 in September, breaking a 17-month contraction streak. It corroborated solid broad-based retail sales growth in July and August. Confidence in the outlook also…
Western policymakers are pursuing three capital “T” Truths: China is evil, climate change is a major risk, and Russia is… also evil. Pursuing all three priorities at the same time presents a version of the classic “impossible trinity…
October seasonality tends to be negative for stocks in an election year. That is the only thing that has stayed our hand from shifting out of our tactical underweight on US equities, initiated – poorly – in July.
But the big macro…