Crude prices have been trendless but volatile in 2024. Oil’s choppy price action illustrates the demand and supply tug-o-war in the market. Our bias is for crude prices to weaken on a six-to-nine months horizon. Good…
September numbers for East Asian trade disappointed across the board. Japanese exports dropped 1.7% year-on-year (YoY) after rising 5.5% in August, and Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports decelerated to 2.7%YoY after…
Chinese activity data met expectations, with Q3 GDP printing at 4.6% year-on-year, decelerating from 4.7% in Q2 but below the 5% 2024 growth target. Other metrics such as industrial production and retail sales beat expectations…
US housing starts and building permits eased below expectations in September. Permits, a proxy for future construction, dropped 2.9% after rising 4.6% in August. New construction fell 0.5% after rising 7.8% a month prior. These…
Yesterday, the ECB solidified its recent dovish tilt in response to weaker growth and decreasing inflationary pressures. It is now set to cut rates 25bps each meeting. How low will the ECB deposit rate ultimately go and what does…
The ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps for the third time this year, lowering the deposit facility rate from 3.5% to 3.25%. While the ECB is avoiding explicitly committing to a path for policy, President Lagarde’s repeated…
Recent positive US economic surprises drove cross-asset pricing, pushing both equities and Treasury yields higher. What do these yield levels mean for the Treasury market, and what path can we expect looking forward? Our US…
Third-quarter earnings season has started last week for banks, with most major banks reporting earnings above expectations so far. Our US Investment strategists routinely analyze the big banks' earnings calls to gauge…
Banks reported an increase in loan demand from both firms and households in the European Central Bank’s Bank Lending Survey, marking the first rise since 2022. This demand increase occurred as lending standards for firms…
Our China and Emerging Market strategy teams analyzed this weekend press conference by the China’s Ministry of Finance (MoF), that provided additional details on the recently announced fiscal stimulus plan. Our…