Our US Political Strategy colleagues now see 55% odds of a Trump victory, with odds of a Republican sweep at 47%. As odds of a contested election are rising, they built on their 2020 work to provide answers for next week’s…
Job openings missed expectations at 7.44 million in September, a mild slowdown from August. The details of the JOLTS report were also negative, except for hirings which continue their June rebound. Meanwhile, consumer confidence…
While moving in the right direction, China’s latest stimulus measures are falling short of the mark to reflate the economy. The latest rumors extend this trend. News agencies reported discussions of a CNY 10 trillion…
For the past two weeks, oil has sold off amid a global spike in yields. Oil prices and Treasury yields tend to be positively correlated, as oil prices are a fast-moving component of inflation, driving the inflation expectations…
Germany’s problems are well known: Demographics, Chinese competition, underinvestment, energy dependence, and constrained fiscal policy. Our European Investment Strategy colleagues believe this bad news is priced in…
The main driver of global consumer sentiment in the past few years has been high inflation. Nowhere has this been the case more than in the US, where measures of animal spirits were depressed despite a roaring economy. Today,…
Middle-aged households have lagged youngish and older households since the pandemic and the 40-to-54 cohort is worse off than it was at the end of 2019. The fragmenting of the seemingly monolithic US consumer widens the path to a…
Savings must either flow into domestic investment, or abroad. Saving too much, with nowhere to funnel it, is breaking China’s economic model according to our Global Investment Strategy colleagues. As China's share of…
Global economic surprises have improved. Currently positive and improving in the US, they are rising from a low level in the Eurozone and China. Two explanations could explain this momentum. First, the recent easing in…
Eurozone money and credit data beat expectations, with M3 accelerating to 3.2% year-over-year in September from 2.9% a month prior. Household and corporate lending both drove the improvement. This development echoes the latest…