Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2025.
Turkey’s financial policymakers have pursued a disciplined and restrictive policy mix so far, delivering high real interest rates and curbing fiscal expansion even as the economy slows. This commitment to inflation control has paved the…
Economic activity and hiring cooled significantly in the first half of the year. The most important question for investors is whether this signals an imminent increase in labor market slack.
The yen’s discount, surplus, and rising real rates line up for a multi-quarter surge. Find out why EUR/JPY is the first short and when USD/JPY follows.
The SARB cut rates by 25 bps to 7.00%; our EM strategists expect further easing and recommends short ZAR exposure. Real interest rates remain elevated, and high borrowing costs are intensifying debt sustainability concerns, with…
The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) held rates at 15%, guaranteeing a sharp growth slowdown and reinforcing our underweight stance on Brazilian equities versus EM. All Copom board members voted to maintain an ultra-hawkish policy…
The Fed will keep rates on hold until the unemployment rate forces its hand.
The fact that the US economy has been slower to deteriorate than in past cycles is entirely consistent with our kinked Phillips curve framework. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive…