Highlights Global Growth & Inflation: An increasing number of growth indicators worldwide are tracing out a “v”-shaped pattern from the COVID-19 recession. However, high unemployment and a lack of inflationary pressure…

Highlights Money Supply Drivers: About 70% of the unprecedented increase in broad money supply is the result of the Fed’s asset purchase activity. The remaining 30% is due to an uptick in C&I loan growth, almost all of which…

  Highlights In the short run, extreme policy uncertainty is problematic for risk assets. In the long run, gargantuan fiscal and monetary stimulus continues to support cyclical trades. Equity volatility always increases in the…

Despite the strong rally in stocks since mid-March and a looming second wave of the pandemic, we continue to recommend that investors overweight equities on a 12-month horizon. Needless to say, this view has raised some eyebrows. With…

Highlights When retail investors invest aggressively and central banks buy assets en masse, economic fundamentals take the back seat and momentum becomes king. Global risk assets are at a fork in the road: either they will relapse…

Special Report

Highlights Our recalibrated model suggests that, if President Trump places a 25% tariff on all Chinese goods exports to the US, then the RMB should fall by 4% against the dollar from its current value. The RMB has been trending below…

Highlights High-Yield: Our analysis of current junk spread levels relative to likely economic outcomes leaves us inclined to maintain our current recommended positioning: Overweight Ba-rated bonds, underweight bonds rated B & below…

Highlights Equities hit an air pocket last week after making another recovery high: Investors seemed to reassess the economy’s direction following official forecasts that ranged from sober to grim. “Whatever we can, and…

Highlights The relaxation of lockdown measures, along with mass protests over the past two weeks, have made a second wave of the pandemic more likely than not in many countries. Unlike during the first wave, most governments will not…

Highlights Historically, when global growth picks up, the yen weakens. But this is less likely in an environment where global yields remain anchored at low levels. Meanwhile, there is rising risk that consumption in Japan will remain…