Highlights US Corporates: The decision by the US Treasury to let the Fed’s emergency lending programs expire does not sound the death knell for the bull market in US corporate debt. Credit markets are functioning normally and US…
On Friday, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin requested that the Fed return unused funds from some select emergency facilities that were unveiled earlier this year, and is not seeking to renew them when they expire on December 31st 2020…
The chart above presents an estimate from Bruegel, a European think tank, of the immediate 2020 fiscal impulse as a % of GDP for the US and several European countries. Bruegel’s approach breaks down discretionary fiscal…
Highlights COVID-19: Markets are trading off the longer-term positive news on COVID-19 vaccines, rather than the shorter-term negative news of surging numbers of new virus cases in Europe and North America. This will continue as long…
Highlights Stocks jumped earlier this week on encouraging news on the vaccine front. While we remain positive on equities over a 12-month horizon, we would stress five vaccine-related risks that stock market investors should be…
Highlights The vaccine promises an eventual return to “normal” life – just as Americans voted to “return to normalcy.” Markets are cheering and hinting at an eventual rotation into value stocks. The…
The chart above presents the implied 1-year US government bond yield 5 years from today, which is a proxy for investor expectations of what Fed funds rate will prevail around the middle of the decade. The dotted horizontal line…
Highlights US Election & COVID-19: Joe Biden’s apparent victory in the US presidential race, as well as the announcement of a potential successful COVID-19 vaccine trial, are both bond-bearish outcomes. This is especially so…
Highlights According to betting markets, Joe Biden is likely to become the 46th US president, with the Republicans maintaining control of the Senate. Such a balance of power could produce less fiscal stimulus than any of the other…