Highlights President Biden’s FY2022 budget largely confirms consensus views of the economy – which means that it overrates the government’s tax-collecting powers and underrates its fiscal profligacy. The US fiscal…
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy and US Bond Strategy services conclude that investors should maintain below-benchmark portfolio duration in US fixed income portfolios. According to their anticipated…
Consumer prices accelerated in the Euro Area in May. The headline consumer price index rose to 2.0% y/y from 1.6% y/y in April. Although the May figure is above the ECB’s target “of below 2%”, the central bank…
Highlights President Biden has called for the US intelligence community to investigate the origins of COVID-19 and one of Biden’s top diplomats has stated the obvious: the era of “engagement” with China is over. This…
Highlights China's high-profile jawboning draws attention to tightness in metals markets, and raises the odds the State Reserve Board (SRB) will release some of its massive copper and aluminum stockpiles in the near future. Over…
Highlights Domestic and foreign supply-side constraints are now exerting a significant effect on the US economy. Consumer prices may increase at a faster pace than we initially expected over the coming 3-4 months, but supply-side…
Highlights A first Fed funds rate hike by early 2023 is cloud cuckoo land – because it will take years to meet the Fed’s pre-condition of full employment. More likely, the first rate hike will happen after mid-2024, and…