Policy
This morning’s employment report showed solid job growth, but recent consumer spending indicators are more concerning. The risk of recession starting within the next few months has increased. We suggest some important indicators for investors to track in the current environment.
The US economy is set to enter a recession within the next few months. Stay underweight equities and overweight cash. Look to increase fixed-income duration exposure over the coming months. The euro is likely to strengthen and European stocks should outperform US stocks over the next month or so, but these trends will reverse by the middle of this year.
ECB: Nearing Neutral With A Complex Outlook…
Retail Real Estate: Alive, Well, And Unnoticed…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2025.
China: Caixin PMIs Point To Low Growth As National People’s Congress Begins…
What Will Hold Trump Back…
Fed Beige Book Shows Slowing Growth, And Rising Price Pressures…
ISM Services Sends Stagflationary Signal…
Please join Doug Peta, Chief US Investment Strategist and co-author of The Bank Credit Analyst, for a Webcast on Wednesday, March 5 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET).