Special Report

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Back From The Future: An Investor’s Almanac  Stocks will rally over the next six months as recession risks abate but then begin to swoon as…

Executive Summary More Regional Divergences Within Our Global LEI  The BCA global leading economic indicator (LEI) is still in a downtrend, but its diffusion index – which tends to lead the overall global LEI at major…

Special Report

Dear Client, This week, the US Bond Strategy service is hosting its Quarterly Webcast (August 16 at 10:00 AM EDT, 15:00 PM BST, 16:00 PM CEST). In addition, we are sending this Quarterly Chartpack that provides a recap of our key…

Special Report

Executive Summary US Deficits Will Rise Before They Fall   The Inflation Reduction Act combined with the Chips and Science Act will add $88 billion to the budget deficit through FY2027. The two bills would only reduce the…

Executive Summary Then And Now  Investors are fixated on inflation; for now, the peak in US CPI is a positive for global stocks. However, this tailwind could easily transform into fear if inflation becomes deflation. The…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Significant Savings Provide A Moat Around Consumers  Three mega moats will protect the US economy over the next 12 months: 1) A high number of job…

Special Report

Executive Summary With the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis materializing, the odds of a major war between the world’s great powers have gone up. Our decision trees suggest the odds are around 20%, or double where they stood from…

Executive Summary Unit Labor Costs, Not Oil Prices, Are The Key To US Core Inflation  Inflation is not about oil, food or used car prices. Looking at prices of individual components of a consumer basket is akin to missing…

Executive Summary Realized Real Interest Rates Must Rise  Policymakers must continue engineering higher real interest rates, and tighter financial conditions, to help cool off growth and bring down overshooting inflation.…

Executive Summary High profile economists Larry Summers and Olivier Blanchard have recently cast doubt on the Federal Reserve’s claim that a soft landing is possible for the US economy. We explore the arguments from both sides…