Russia’s conflict with the West will escalate and trigger more bad news for risky assets this fall. Beyond that, stalemate looms. Latin American equities present a potential opportunity once the macro and geopolitical backdrop…
This week, we present our quarterly review of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) model bond portfolio for Q3/2022. We also discuss the model portfolio’s expected performance over next 3-6 months after our recent…
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2022.
Investors should go long US treasuries and stay overweight defensive versus cyclical sectors, large caps versus small caps, and aerospace/defense stocks. Regionally we favor the US, India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, while…
In Section I, we note that the Fed’s new interest rate projections show that US monetary policy is set to rise soon into restrictive territory even relative to what we consider to be the neutral rate of interest, and to a level that…
Executive Summary For the first time in a decade, it is much less attractive to buy than to rent a home. In both the UK and US, the mortgage rate is now almost double the average rental yield. To reset the equilibrium between buying…
Executive Summary Biden And Democrats Arrest Fall In Public Opinion US policy is essential to the global macro, policy, and geopolitical outlook in the fourth quarter. Our three key views for 2022 are still in place: the…
Executive Summary Upward Repricing Of Bond Yields Continues In this report, we discuss our move last week to shift to a below-benchmark overall global duration stance in more detail. Our strongest conviction view on…
Dear client, Next week’s report will be on European assets, authored by my colleague Mathieu Savary. We will send that to you Monday, September 26. In that report, Mathieu looks at the European energy market in depth, and…