Special Report

Prefer government bonds over stocks, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and large caps over small caps. Favor North America over other markets. Favor emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America over Greater China, Turkey,…

Special Report

In this report, we argue that the dollar will enter a volatile trading range, before a bear market begins in earnest. That said, fundamental forces are aligning for US dollar downside.

Special Report

In this report, we discuss our most important investment themes for global fixed income markets in 2023, and present our main investment recommendations based on those themes. Our broad conclusion: an environment of slowing global…

We expect a bullish gold environment in 2023, conditional on a more dovish Fed. We are hesitant to go strategically long gold, since our view hinges on one variable: US monetary policy. We remain tactically bullish gold to take…

Special Report

For the first time in decades, the Fed is raising rates while the US Leading Economic Indicator has fallen into contractionary territory and the global manufacturing PMI’s new orders sub-index has dropped below 50. Hence, the outlook…

The pandemic gave older Americans and Brits a massive carrot and stick to retire early. The carrot being a surge in wealth, the stick being a risk to health. In other major economies, the carrots and sticks were smaller or non-…

Special Report

Investors should maintain a conservative and defensive strategy until recession risks are clearly reduced.

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for December 2022.

Labor market strength and consumers’ evident willingness to dip into their pandemic savings keep our optimistic consumer thesis intact. We remain tactically overweight equities.

European inflation will decline through 2023, which will greatly help households and consumption. But can European inflation remain low after that?