Investors should bet against the global rally in risk assets and maintain a defensive positioning until recession risks verifiably abate.

In this Strategy Insight, we assess the best and worst opportunities for inflation-linked bonds within the major developed markets. We see a case for underweighting inflation protection in the euro area, while overweighting Japanese…

In response to lower energy prices and China’s reopening, European assets prices are outperforming. Will the ECB spoil the party?

In this week’s report, we look at whether global growth conditions remain conducive for a continued decline in the dollar. Our findings are mixed, while there are some economic green shoots, the overall growth picture remains weak.…

The crucial question for 2023 is: will the US and UK Beveridge Curves shift back inwards to their pre-pandemic versions, ushering in a soft landing? Or, will we slide down the new post-pandemic Beveridge Curves into recession? Plus:…

The Fed will respond to December’s CPI report by downshifting to a 25 bps hike pace next month. We anticipate two more 25 bps hikes before the Fed goes on hold.

Why will Chinese consumer spending recover but not its industrial sectors? Will China's reopening boost the global business cycle and inflation? How fast will US core inflation fall and what are the implications for corporate profits…

How to play China's reopening? What are the dichotomies in the performance of China's plays in financial markets? Why has the Chinese central bank tightened liquidity since October and what has been the impact on local rates and the…

China's economic recovery will be led by consumer spending on services rather than the industrial sector. The current equity market leadership – outperformance by tech stocks – is unsustainable. Persistent deflationary forces will…

Slowing growth would be bad for equities, but so would stronger growth since it would mean more rate hikes.