This week’s report considers the risk that inflation will be stickier than we anticipate, and looks at what a fair value for the 10-year Treasury yield might be in a scenario where the Fed keeps the policy rate on hold for a…
We refresh our 2023 plan of attack to reflect the latest data and several rounds of discussions with clients in virtual and face-to-face meetings. We continue to expect a meaningful first-half rally in the S&P 500, despite…
Long-term drivers, including the growing ability of banks to returns cash to shareholders, point toward a strong structural performance for European financials. However, the ECB’s aggressive tightening campaign could still spoil the…
From a technical standpoint, the dollar is due for a bounce. In this report, we review various indicators to gauge the magnitude and duration of this rally. We also recommend two new trades: sell the gold/silver ratio at 90 and EUR/…
Core CPI rose sequentially in January compared to December, but we don’t see this as the beginning of a new trend. Disinflation is very much still in the cards for the US economy between now and the end of the year.
Thai stocks and currency will weaken over the short term. And yet EM equity portfolios should overweight Thailand as tourism revivals will rejuvenate this economy.
The backdrop for corporate bonds is turning more risky after the spread tightening seen over the past few months in the US and Europe. A tour of our favorite corporate spread valuation metrics on both sides of the Atlantic suggests a…
We discuss the outlook for the Fed’s balance sheet and why QT is likely to continue for at least another year.
Our Central Bank Monitors support the recent shift in tone from central bankers in Europe. Find out what it means for European fixed-income portfolio allocation.
Two developments this week reinforce our key views for 2023. First, Russia’s threat to reduce oil production by 500,000 barrels per day, while escalating the war in Ukraine, confirms that geopolitical risk will rebound and new oil…