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Policy

A preview of what to expect from next week’s FOMC meeting.

In this <i>Insight</i>, we answer a few crucial questions: Do the BoC and RBA decisions have any impact on what we can expect from other major central banks next week? Are there any profitable trades that can be put on, given the recent hawkish shift by these two central banks? How should global bond investors be positioned in a fixed income portfolio?

The latest increase in US weekly jobless claims came in above consensus estimates. Initial jobless claims jumped to 261 thousand in the week ended June 3 – above expectations of a 235 thousand increase. This marks the highest level since October 2021. Rising…
The final Q1 GDP release shows the Euro Area economy contracted by 0.1% q/q last quarter, a downwards revision from estimates of a 0.1% expansion. To the extent that this follows a 0.1% q/q decline in Q4 2022, the revised numbers indicate that the Euro Area…

In this <i>Insight</i>, we answer a few crucial questions: Do the BoC and RBA decisions have any impact on what we can expect from other major central banks next week? Are there any profitable trades that can be put on, given the recent hawkish shift by these two central banks? How should global bond investors be positioned in a fixed income portfolio?

The Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised markets with a 25bp hike yesterday, bringing the policy rate up to a 22-year high of 4.75%. This ended the pause on rate hikes announced back in March, which only ended up lasting two meetings. The Canadian bond market…

What’s going on? The market-weighted stock market is up. But the equally-weighted stock market is not up. Neither is credit. Neither are industrial metal prices. Neither is the oil price, despite two waves of OPEC output cuts. We explain the dichotomy. Plus: European basic resources stocks can rebound, but Netherlands is likely to reverse.

Tuesday’s German factory orders release sent a disappointing signal about industrial demand. Although the pace of decline eased from -10.9% m/m to -0.4% m/m in April, it fell below expectations of a 2.8% m/m increase. Both capital and consumer goods orders…
The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets with a 25 basis point rate hike on Tuesday, bringing the Cash Rate up to 4.1%. This marks the second consecutive rate increase following a pause in April. The post-meeting statement stressed that at 7%,…
In our FX strategists’ models, the Norwegian krone is one of the cheapest currencies. On its own, valuation is usually not a sufficient catalyst to unlock value in any currency. That said, there are a few signs that the Norwegian krone is approaching levels…