Policy

This week we preview the July FOMC meeting, provide an update on the Fed’s balance sheet and recommend a new TIPS trade.

In this report, we present our performance review of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) model bond portfolio for the Q2/2023, and the outlook and scenario analysis for the next six months. The portfolio return exactly matched that of the benchmark index during the quarter, as modest gains on government bond allocations in the US, UK and core Europe completely offset losses on spread product underweights. Looking ahead, the portfolio is positioned to capitalize on an expected slowing of global growth over the rest of the year through an overweight stance on government bonds versus spread product and above-benchmark duration tilts in the US and core Europe.

In this report, we evaluate the breakdown in the dollar and next moves in the DXY, based on fundamentals, historical precedents, and technical patterns over the last few years.

In this report, we evaluate the breakdown in the dollar and next moves in the DXY, based on fundamentals, historical precedents, and technical patterns over the last few years.

Spain is holding a general election this Sunday and the country is likely to veer to the right. Will this shift threaten European unity and herald a new period of tensions in the Eurozone?

The looming risk of an economic downturn, geopolitical risk and inconsistent government policy are feeding commodity markets with volatility, additional to the market specific uncertainty-generating factors. Amidst heightened event-based uncertainty and a possible general economic deterioration, investors will pay more attention and react to events, increasing overall uncertainty levels, which in turn will further fuel commodity price volatility. Commodity producers will be disincentivized from making future supply investments against heightened price volatility and policy uncertainty.