Stronger US growth elicits a response from the House Republicans. But a government shutdown is not devastating to the economy. What is more devastating would be a crisis in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. Stay long US defense,…
A look at recent data on economic growth, inflation and the labor market, and a discussion of the implications for Fed policy and bond strategy.
In a guest authorship of Section I, Doug Peta presents a synthesis of the recent views expressed in our US Investment Strategy and Bank Credit Analyst reports. Doug underscores that excess savings are unlikely to support US consumer…
As expected, the ECB kept policy on hold on Thursday. In a unanimous decision, it maintained the deposit rate at an all-time high of 4% following 10 consecutive increases. Ultimately, the tone of the communication was on the…
The US Q3 GDP release delivered a positive signal about the US economy. Economic growth accelerated from 2.1% q/q to 4.9% q/q on an annualized basis – beating expectations of 4.5%. A significant acceleration in consumption…
The Atlanta Fed's Home Ownership Affordability Monitor (HOAM) – which gauges a median-income households' ability to absorb annual costs related to owning a median-priced home – dropped to a fresh record low in…
As expected, the Bank of Canada kept its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 5% for the second meeting in a row on Wednesday. The Bank cited clear evidence of the impact of elevated interest rates on demand —…
Results of the October German IFO survey corroborate the positive signal from the latest ZEW survey. The headline Business Climate Index increased for the first time since April, rising from 85.8 to 86.9, above expectations of 86…