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Policy

Canadian Inflation Continues To Cool
Tuesday’s CPI release confirmed that the disinflationary trend in Canada remains intact. After a brief relapse this summer, Canada’s inflation is headed in the right direction. As anticipated, headline CPI inflation came in at 3.1% y/y in October, down from…
Daily Insights
Proceeding Carefully
The minutes of the Fed's latest FOMC meeting revealed that there is a consensus among policymakers to proceed carefully. Another rate increase is appropriate only if "incoming inflation indicated that progress toward the Committee's inflation objective was…
Daily Insights
On Shifting Market Narratives
After dipping into negative territory between June and early August, the Global Economic Surprise Index has since rebounded, signalling an improvement in economic momentum. Initially, this rebound was isolated to the US. However, the trend has been broadening…
Daily Insights
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Mid-caps: The Best Of Both Worlds

Mid-caps are the best of both worlds and are an excellent strategic overweight thanks to their size premium, but also better financial quality and higher dividend yield than Small. We are bullish on Mid near term and believe that this may be a great trade. We will initiate a position in the S&P 400 as a tactical overweight but will monitor it very closely.

Equity Analyzer by Irene Tunkel, Guy Russell
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The Midwest: The Pivot Of US History

President Biden is facing foreign challenges on three fronts and these challenges are coalescing around the critical states of the Midwest. Take risks off the table and stay defensive in 2024.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri
US LEI Continues To Signal Recession Ahead
The US Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) continues to send a poor signal about the economic outlook. The monthly pace of contraction quickened to -0.8% m/m in October from -0.7% m/m in September. In terms of the drivers of the monthly…
Daily Insights
Waiting For The Optimal Opportunity To Turn Defensive
The soft-landing narrative is gaining momentum, pushing equities higher and potentially offering investors a better entry point to position against it. Financial markets appear to have been surprised by the comforting inflation picture painted by the…
Daily Insights
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The Soft-Landing Narrative Gathers Steam

The soft-landing narrative has gotten nowhere at BCA but appears to be making some headway with broker-dealers and investors. We are preparing to lean against it once it pushes equity prices a little higher.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
A Lasting Improvement In Global Sentiment?
Global market sentiment has improved notably since late-October. In the equity space, DM and EM stocks have gained 8.5% and 7.8% respectively since October 26. Regarding currencies, the counter-cyclical DXY index has lost 2.2% so far in November. And as we…
Daily Insights
Maintain A Neutral Allocation To TIPS For Now
BCA Research's US Bond Strategy service continues to recommend a neutral allocation to TIPS for now, but with a bias to turn underweight. The team calculates a forecasted range for headline CPI inflation of 0.9% to 2.9% over the next 12 months. For core…
Daily Insights

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