Policy

Our political forecasting scored wins in 2023 but we failed to capitalize on it adequately in our trade recommendations.

Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2024. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the next twelve months toward the end of each year.

A series of notable events took place over the Thanksgiving holiday but none of them force us to change our fundamental assessments. The conflict in the Middle East is likely to escalate rather than de-escalate, while the Taiwan Strait has at least a 50/50 chance of seeing tensions escalate next year.

The first stop of the EIS Special Series: PIGS Have Wings takes us to Portugal.

This report looks at the prospects for the Swedish krona, following the pause by the Riksbank.

Poland’s inflation will stay elevated. And yet, its return to the European mainstream has improved its financial market outlook. Accordingly, we are recommending new trades on Polish equity, fixed income, and currency.